Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… After the Fed’s December hike, Wall Street is quite sure the central bankers won’t touch rates through May. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.25%-2.50%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Jan 30 2.25%-2.50%
Mar 20 2.25%-2.50%
May 1 2.25%-2.50%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Jan 30 1%
Mar 20 6%
May 1 6%